Update as at Thursday 12 October 2017
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2017 Season Pool Prices (Pool valuation as at 5 October 2017)
Forward Season Pool Prices (Pool valuation as at 28 September 2017)
Net AUD/T (IPS) subject to change with changes in the ICE 11 market price affecting unpriced exposures, movement in the AUD/USD exchange rate and also due to movements in the Shared Pool.
- Very little change fundamentally with technical factors and behaviour of Speculators driving prices. Speculators have liquidated a portion of their record sold position, however they remain moderately short.
- Brazilian ethanol prices have increased due to reduced imports, higher Gasoline prices and reduced supply.
- Ethanol parity (Santo’s ex mill) is ~15.50 (higher in other regions), and will likely to encourage more ethanol/less sugar on the remaining 25% of the crush.
- Dryness in Brazil’s Centre South is a major concern with a number of analysts forecasting lower cane production next year, as well as a lower sugar mix with most analysts forecasting a crop of between 33 and 34 mln MT.
- Growing conditions in the Northern Hemisphere continued to be close to ideal.
- Prospects for next seasons Indian crop have improved, with a good monsoon and increased adsali cane in Uttar Pradesh.
- Thailand’s crop development exceeds expectations.
- EU28 prices appear to moving to export parity with exports deregulated as of the 1st October. Crop prospects continue to improve with some analysts revising current season production higher.
- US Dollar has regained some strength as domestic data improves and the Fed becomes more Hawkish with a December rate hike likely.
- The BRL is stable despite a stronger USD, as the political situation settles and and improved domestic political environment.
- The Australian Dollar has weakened and is trading below 78c, mostly attributable to a stronger US Dollar and weaker Iron Ore prices.