Update as at 11 April 2019
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2018 Season Pool Prices (Pool valuation as at 11 April 2019)
Forward Season Pool Prices (Pool valuation as at 11 April 2019)
Net AUD/T (IPS) subject to change with changes in the ICE 11 market price affecting unpriced exposures, movement in the AUD/USD exchange rate and also due to movements in the Shared Pool.
Major Headlines – Terry Allom, MSF’s Commodity Services Manager
With the Indian and Thai crush coming to a close and CS Brazil crush yet to start in earnest the market lacks any substance (outside the funds) to motivate a significant move. That said there are a few key factors (albeit mostly known) that are holding the interest of market participants. These are as follows:
- Petrobras continues to raise the gasoline price to reflect the rise in the West Texas Crude oil price. Depending on the Gasoline Ethanol ratio (typically 60-70%) ethanol parity is 12-14 cent equivalent.
- Indian production is marching higher with the last update printing production at 27.3 mmt of sugar output. Final production estimates are coming in around 32.6 mmt some 300 kmt above last year’s record production. Looking forward the weather doctors see an El Nino threat continuing and consequently there may be negative impact on the Indian monsoon – Is this the black swan event we need to reduce global stocks by a significant level to allow a return to at least average prices? Only time will tell.
- Thai sugar crush is 2 – 3 weeks from completion. Indications suggest a total cane crush of 126 mmt. As with India El Nino is having an impact with a production set to decline 10% from forecast for the next crop which will commence harvesting Nov/Dec 2019. Any impact of poor production will be felt in Q4.
- Index funds continue to grow their short position. The last Commitment of Traders report had the non index funds at 126,000 lots short. The unknown is will they continue to grow the short (as they have done in other ag commodities) or what is the trigger to unwind the position?
- The Aussie dollar seems to be stuck in a rut unable to break out of it’s recent 0.7050 to 0.7150 range.