Pool Update

Update as at Thursday 12 October 2017

The information and views expressed in this report are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of MSF
Sugar. While all care is taken in the preparation of this report the reliability or accuracy of the information provided in the document is not
guaranteed. MSF Sugar does not accept any responsibility to any person for the decisions and actions taken by that person with respect
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2017 Season Pool Prices (Pool valuation as at 5 October 2017)

IS Pools

Forward Season Pool Prices (Pool valuation as at 28 September 2017)

FS Pools

Net AUD/T (IPS) subject to change with changes in the ICE 11 market price affecting unpriced exposures, movement in the AUD/USD exchange rate and also due to  movements in the Shared Pool.

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Major Headlines

  1. Very little change fundamentally with technical factors and behaviour of Speculators driving prices. Speculators have liquidated a portion of their record sold position, however they remain moderately short.
  2. Brazilian ethanol prices have increased due to reduced imports, higher Gasoline prices and reduced supply.
  3. Ethanol parity (Santo’s ex mill) is ~15.50 (higher in other regions), and will likely to encourage more ethanol/less sugar on the remaining 25% of the crush.
  4. Dryness in Brazil’s Centre South is a major concern with a number of analysts forecasting lower cane production next year, as well as a lower sugar mix with most analysts forecasting a crop of between 33 and 34 mln MT.
  5. Growing conditions in the Northern Hemisphere continued to be close to ideal.
  6. Prospects for next seasons Indian crop have improved, with a good monsoon and increased adsali cane in Uttar Pradesh.
  7. Thailand’s crop development exceeds expectations.
  8. EU28 prices appear to moving to export parity with exports deregulated as of the 1st October. Crop prospects continue to improve with some analysts revising current season production higher.
  9. US Dollar has regained some strength as domestic data improves and the Fed becomes more Hawkish with a December rate hike likely.
  10. The BRL is stable despite a stronger USD, as the political situation settles and and improved domestic political environment.
  11. The Australian Dollar has weakened and is trading below 78c, mostly attributable to a stronger US Dollar and weaker Iron Ore prices.

 

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